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Analysis of the match between Manchester City and Newcastle United
Man City must be thrilled and full of hope seeing Arsenal drop points once again in this season’s Premier League title race. The 2-2 draw at Wolves means the gap between the two teams could shrink to just 2 points if the Citizens secure all three points against Newcastle at Etihad this round.
There are plenty of reasons to back a win for Pep Guardiola’s side. First, Man City has won all of their last six home Premier League matches against Newcastle without conceding a single goal. In the competition’s history, only a streak of seven consecutive clean-sheet wins against Stoke from 1982 to 2014 is longer.
Another strength lies in their solid defense. Since the 5-4 victory over Fulham in December 2025, Man City has conceded only 8 goals in their last 12 Premier League games – the fewest of any team over the same period. Goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma has also impressed with three expected-goal saves (xGoT) out of a total of 11 xGoT.
Newcastle’s record adds to Man City’s advantage. All nine of Newcastle’s recent Premier League away wins came against lower-half teams. They have not won in 10 away matches against top-half teams (3 draws, 7 losses) since the 3-1 victory over Nottingham in November 2024. Moreover, since 2001, Newcastle has not beaten any team in the Top 2, with a record of 5 draws and 32 losses since their 3-1 win over Arsenal.
Furthermore, since the 2010/11 season, only one English manager has won an away Premier League game against Man City – Roy Hodgson, who led Crystal Palace to a 3-2 win in December 2018. In the other 76 matches, English managers have drawn 8 and lost 67 times.
All these statistics suggest that Man City almost certainly holds the upper hand heading into their home clash with Newcastle this weekend.
